Category: Betting

In a nutshell, over-under betting is a type of bet that a bookmaker has offered on the combined total of a specific statistic in a single game. Football scores are popular so let’s take a look at an example for a clearer understanding. Let’s say that Liverpool is playing Manchester United and the bookmakers have offered a 2.5 line. If the game ends and two goals were scored (by either team, it is irrelevant who scored the goals or who won), if you had bet under the line you can collect your winnings. If you thought more goals would have been scored in the game and bet over the line, then obviously you were not a winner this time.

Over-under betting is extremely common now and is growing in popularity as bookmakers offer more and more diverse statistics to bet on. You can find bets on football corners, tennis aces in a game, rugby penalties, anything. In this article we will concentrate on football scores for simplicity’s sake. There is a multitude of sports and statistics to bet over-under on and you will have no trouble finding your favourite sport at a bookmakers and when sports betting online.

What is the betting line?

The betting line is the cut-off point to provide the options for betting under or over. With football scores for example you will be able to find lines starting at 0.5 up to 5.5 and beyond. With other sports, bookmakers will make it clear what betting lines they have chosen for a game. Lines of 1.5 or less may offer lower odds as it will be more likely that a game will have more than 2 goals compared to a game having 6 or more (for a 5.5 line). Lower betting lines can still be profitable particularly if you use then in as part of an accumulator to make decent money.

Lines greater than 2.5 will generally pay out better odds as the likelihood of so many goals scored in a game decreases. This can definitely work to your advantage if a game is coming up that is very one sided or if both teams are likely to score a lot of goals.

The great thing about over-under betting is that it really does not matter who wins, or who scores the goals. Just as long as you have predicted the right side of the betting line you will make money. This types of bets might even help you place more winners, because if you don’t care who wins or loses you can pick more rationally if you don’t have an emotional connection to the game.

A couple of Tips

Research

The more in depth and detailed your research is the greater the likelihood you will pick the right bet. Of course this goes for all forms of betting but it is particularly the case with over-under betting. For example don’t just look at the average goals scored in games over a set period of time and conclude that is the best indicator. A couple of huge scoring games can make the overall average way higher than it possible should be. So calculate an average minus any extraordinary scores that really stand out.

Scoring and winners

It may feel odd but you must keep in mind while researching that it doesn’t matter one bit who wins or loses, or which team is more likely to do so. The main thing to consider is the goal scoring potential. This includes things like shots on goal, conversion rates and shots on target. Getting the most in depth understanding of goal scoring potential will help you make more money with your picks.

In Conclusion

Over-under betting is an excellent option to have when sports betting online or on the high street. It can be less heart-breaking then when having to pick a winner, and low line bets are fantastic as part of an accumulator. So bottom line – when to make over-under bets? Any time is a good time provided you have done your research and are confident with your choices.

Do you like to spend time at UK casino sites and doing a little sports betting here and there? Then you surely know about the diverse opportunities for entertainment available in these kinds of websites. But do you realize there are sports betting jackpots out there that stand shoulder to shoulder with the biggest online casino jackpots? The on-line betting industry is now so massive that its biggest money prizes often overshadow anything else available in traditional lotteries and casinos.

If you haven’t been paying attention to these matters, you may be surprised to learn about popular services such as Colossus bets. Simply put, this is a pool betting system that makes it likelier for you to have a shot at the biggest sports jackpots available out there. Even though sports betting does involve a little skill and solid understanding of the related sports, that also means you have a chance of using your passion towards big league sports to your benefit.

Skilfull Sports Enthusiasts Should Look For Sports Betting Jackpots!

On-line sports betting are a great option for true sports enthusiasts who are looking to capitalize on their expertise and knowledge. When you start looking into the available options, you quickly realize there are hundreds of book keepers online covering essentially every sport that you can think of, no matter of obscure or how widespread. Obviously though, the biggest prizes tend to be associated to the most popular sports, since that’s where the most people put their money – let’s not forget the available prizes are always the product of the combined bets at any given time.

If you are interested in online sports betting and you want a chance of winning the best available prizes, then you have to look for progressive jackpots – not many people realize such a thing exists in terms of sports betting, and it is indeed possible to get massive winnings by stringing a long series of correct predictions. To improve your odds of nabbing the biggest profits, you may want to look into pool betting sites like Colossus bets, which allow players to maximize opportunities by selecting from a series of possible outcomes in popular sports events. There are different pool betting types available from this provider, ranging from the fan favorite Asian Handicap to basics such as predicting the correct score, to guessing over and under combined scores, and simply predicting the outcome of a string of matches.

Why Online Casino Jackpots Are Your Best Bet to Win Large

At the time of writing, the biggest online casino jackpot ever awarded amounted to a very substantial £15 million, awarded to one Jon Heyhood from Cardiff UK while he was playing the popular slots game Mega Moolah. According to the Guiness World of Records, this lucky British solder happened across the biggest progressive jackpot ever awarded from on-line lotteries while casually enjoying some slots at the well-known Betway online gambling website.

In fact, this online based prize was so huge that you’ll be hard pressed to find similar numbers available from any other game of chance available out on the “real world”. It’s amazing to think how this prize essentially boiled down to nothing but pure luck! It could have been you, pushing that fateful button that triggered the winning sequence at that particular point in on-line gambling history! With that in mind, for anyone who wants a shot at the biggest prizes that involve the least effort, progressive jackpot slots likely remain the best available option. To stay focused on the best opportunities, you just have to look for the most popular slots like Arabian Nights, Mega Fortune, Hall of Gods, and of course… Mega Moolah. Prize pools are growing as we speak.

UK Casino Sites are Now Offering Some of The Biggest Prizes Available Anywhere!

These are great times for people who like to play games of chance online, as the industry has grown so large its biggest prizes now easily outshine anything else available offline. If you want to get a chance of winning large, you have two main courses of action: keep testing your luck by looking for the biggest online jackpots available, or add your skill to the mix by focusing on the biggest sports betting jackpot opportunities. Which option suits you best?

Whatever your preference is, make sure to enjoy these games in a responsible fashion and remember: if your main goal is having fun, you will be unlikely to get disappointed even if you don’t become the next online casino multi-millionaire!

Sports betting online can be really fun, and if you know what you’re doing it can even be a profitable way to spend your time. Getting the most of a sports bet UK website requires deep understanding of sports, but it’s also worth spending some time learning about some very important key terms.

For example, many people aren’t quite clear on the difference between betting and gambling. While at first look it may sound like an unimportant distinction, truth is there is a crucial difference between these terms, as you’ll learn in this article. We’ll also dispense some useful advice for anyone who’s invested in doing sports bet UK of any kind, so if that’s your case, make sure to read carefully.

The Crucial Difference Between Gambling online and Betting

To make this article clear and simple, we should jump straight to the point and explain what is the crucial difference between betting and gambling. In general terms, both words seem to point to the same meaning, and in fact betting is a particular form of gambling. There is, however, a crucial difference between these words: you see, gambling of any kind is usually not a legal activity anywhere in the world, whereas in some countries you can participate in legitimate betting without breaking any law. So what is the difference really, and how can you know if you’re standing in the right side of the law?

Both when it comes to betting and gambling, the concept involves putting some money down against other people while trying to predict the outcome of a certain event. For example, you can tell someone that you bet £100 they can’t eat a family size pizza on their own – technically, this would be illegal to do in most countries since it’s arbitrary and unregulated.

Betting, by contrast, is a type of organized gambling that focuses on predictable outcomes which are independent to the involved parties. The most obvious example would be betting money on the outcome of a particular sports event, something that is legal to do in many countries, provided it’s done through official channels such as your favorite sports betting online brands.

In simple terms, betting is a specific type of gambling that requires a certain order and terms which are clear, predictable, and independent to both parties… as opposed to arbitrary conditions set by one of the parties involved in the bet.

Sports Betting Online is Legal and Fun

Assuming you’ve read through the previous section carefully, at this point you should have a clear notion of what is the difference between gambling. You should also have realized that you should stick to legitimate betting avenues if you want to avoid clashing with the law. There are hundreds of reliable and trustworthy sport bookers operating all over the Internet, so if you’re a big adept of legitimate Sports bet in the UK you should be able to find a bookie that suits you right.

All legitimate sports betting websites are real world businesses that operate fully within the scope of the law. For this reason, you may not always be allowed to join a certain website if you’re visiting from a country that has specific regulations against sports betting. You don’t have to worry too much about that, since all sports betting websites will quickly inform you if you’re eligible to join.

Learning Sports Betting Tips Will Improve Your Winning Odds

If you want to increase your winning edge when gambling online at sports betting casinos, we recommend two areas of study. First and foremost, you should be quite familiar with the teams you’re planning to bet money on (or against). Ideally, you should have in-depth knowledge of their performance through the current season, including the status of all the major players. The more background information you have, the more educated your betting will be – which means that your odds of winning will rise in proportion to your knowledge.

Asides from being well versed in your favored major sport and its current teams and players, you will be in a much better position to win money at sports betting if you have a solid understanding of statistics. You don’t really have to be a math genius since all sports betting websites do the math for you, but it’s absolutely useful to have an intuitive knowledge of the chances assigned to each event so you can cross reference your hunch with the official game statistics.

For the casual player, sports betting may feel somewhat like playing the lottery with their favorite teams. For the advanced sports bettor, it’s more about doing deep analysis and making careful predictions, which when done right can pay off big money.

If you’re a betting fan then the chances are you’ve heard of arbitrage betting. This type of betting is also known as ‘sure betting’, and simply means a bet that you are guaranteed to profit from. Due to the nature of this type of bet, they aren’t easy to come by, it isn’t in the interest of the bookmakers to publicise these bets. However, they are out there and some people are making decent returns by following this betting method.

How Does Sports Arbitraging Work?

An arbitrage bet is a type of bet where simultaneous outcomes of an event are all bet on at once, leading to a profit. Arbitrage betting works when there is discrepancy between odds allowing a profit to be made when all outcomes are covered. These type of odds usually only occur when an error is made in a pricing market, or when a number of bookmakers offer different odds. Some gamblers may be against this type of betting as it takes a lot of fun out of the gambling thrill, but arbitrage betters aren’t usually casual gamblers. Most arbitrage betters are not interested in what they are betting on and instead use the strategy to simply make money.

Arbitrage betting is perfectly legal but frowned upon by many online betting sites. As betting sites can ban or restrict accounts without having to give a reason, regular arbitrage betters may be caught and have their accounts closed.

Sports Arbitraging – How To Compare Odds Online

To become successful in the world of sports arbitraging it is important to know how to compare odds online. There are a number of websites that offer odds calculation software that calculate odds and returns on arbitrage bets. Some gablers choose betting exchange sites to protect their main betting accounts. With a betting exchange, money is made on commission regardless of whether a customer wins or loses, therefore customers won’t lose their accounts or have restrictions placed on them for arbitrage betting.

Is There Money To Be Made In Sports Arbitraging?

While arbitrage betting is far from a ‘get rich quick’ scheme, many people do make a substantial return on investment. Regular arbitrage betters usually yield between 10 and 15 percent on their investment each month. Therefore, it is a good idea to look at arbitraging as a steady investment opportunity as opposed to something that will make you a lot of money with minimal effort. Like all investments, patience is key, arbitraging is best described as a low-risk investment, but you won’t get rich quickly from it, even if you have a large initial investment.

How Much Money Should You Start With?

Like all type of investment, the more money you start with then the more you will earn. Most successful arbitrage betters start with at least £1000, but you can start with less, your returns just won’t be as high but they will add up over time. Some people turn arbitrage betting into a full time job, but to do this you, will need to invest significant money and time.

How Do I Get Started And Find Sure Bets?

Finding arbitrage betting opportunities isn’t easy, which is why it’s best to download special software, or join forums to identify them. Manually identifying your opportunities is very time consuming. If you choose to identify the opportunities manually then your profits will suffer due to the time it will take you to find an opportunity that may only make you £0.45. There are a number of online communities for sure betters where punters share their findings. Forums can usually be found through a search engine, there are also a number of communities on social media dedicated to arbitrage betting.

Tips For Success

1. Keep track of your transactions, it’s a good idea to create a spreadsheet to monitor your bets.
2. Always double check the odds before placing any bets.
3. Keep an eye out for any changes in odds, these often fluctuate prior to the start of a sports game. If you miss any changes then your guaranteed profit can be wiped out entirely.
4. Keep your investment steady and don’t expect to get rich quickly. Like any investment, making money from sure betting takes time and patience.
5. Join online forums and social media pages that focus on sure bets. This is a great way to communicate with others that are trying to profit from sports arbitraging, you may also lean some tips and tricks.

Since it began in the 19th century, sports betting has taken the world by storm. Every day, people from all over the world make money from placing bets on sportsbooks.

Also known as accumulator betting, parlays are among the most exciting forms of bets. Parlays are for people who want to make HUGE wins, from smaller investments.

What are Parlays?

A Parlay is a type of sports betting that allows you to string multiple single bets into one big one, thereby significantly increasing your potential payout. There are two types of parlay bets:

1. Traditional Parlays. In this case, every selection in your string of bets should win. Otherwise, you lose everything and come out with nothing.

2. Progressive Parlays allow you win some money, even if some of your selections fail.

How to calculate parlay payouts

Assuming there are three games tonight and you wish to bet on all of them, a total of £150.

• Black Vs White
• Red Vs Blue
• Green Vs Yellow

You have the choice of placing individual bets or stringing the three of them together to make one big bet. Using the payout odds we have assigned below, we will see the difference between individual and accumulator bets.

• Black -110
• Red -110
• Green -110
• White +110
• Blue +110
• Yello +110

If we place individual bets of £50 on Teams Black, Red and Green and they all win, we will make £45.45 on each, which amounts to £136.35

If we place a Parlay bet, with the same odds and results, we will make a profit of £893.69!

Name of Parlay bets

The first accumulator bet must consist of two predictions and is called a double. A parlay that consists of three selections is called a treble. From then onwards, the name of the accumulator bet corresponds with the number of selections.

Advantages of Accumulator betting

• If you manage to win a parlay, the payout will be several times higher than in individual bets. Since the risks are higher, sportsbooks calculate payouts for accumulator bets to favour whoever wins in all games.
• You get major bragging rights if you do win. Parlay bets are thrilling and extra difficult to win. Plus the amount won in the accumulator bet is usually big enough to make you appear in some news.

Disadvantages of accumulator bets

By now, the main con of parlay bets is pretty obvious. Assuming that you placed £50 on 10 games as one bet in a traditional parlay and you win 14 but lose 1, you will lose your £50 and go home with nothing.

Beginners and better with a gambling mindset do not receive much success from parlays because they do not have a practical understanding of risks and odds. By the time they realise that the big payout comes with skill and precision, they are already out of bankroll.

Important things to note about accumulator bets

At first, you might think that parlays must have different odds. However, the payouts are just the same as individual bets. Do not be confused, what we mean is, the payouts in a parlay are correct, for the odds of the games. Technically, it is challenging to win three games in a row, that is why the payouts are significantly higher.

For example:

Using our earlier example ( Black, Red and Green teams), we will prove that parlays are calculated at true odds.

• Black -110
• Red -110
• Green -110

If we convert the odds into decimal points, we get 1.91. To get the odds of a parlay bet, we have to multiply all the odds.

1.91 x 1.91x 1.91 = 6.967

If we use our initial bet of £150 and odds of 6.967, we receive £1045.05. After subtracting the £150 investment, our profit is £895.05. Our example proves that sportsbook does not put in more money in accumulator bets.

Tips to help you win accumulator bets

• Ensure that you know your sport and teams well.
• The fewer selections you make, the better.
• Shop around for different bookmakers.
• If you can find a sportsbook that offers progressive Parlays, bet on it.
• Before placing a bet, ensure that you are well informed about the different markets.
• Do not bet with your emotions.

Remember, you must be able to calculate parlay odds, in addition to all the tips we have given you.

The world of online betting is populated by account holders who are every day, searching for the best strategy. If the Kelly Criterion Strategy is not on your list, it is about time you add it. When it comes to betting the most common challenge that players face is, how does one ensure that they place stakes so correctly that wins will be ‘big’ and losses will be ‘small’?

What is the Kelly Criterion Betting Strategy?

We use this strategy in betting, to calculate the highest and lowest probabilities of winning and losing. Although it sounds like all other strategies, it is significantly different and more complex. Why? The Kelly Criterion helps to determine how much you should place a winning bet and increase the value of the returns, as well as the amount you should stake on a game that you are not so sure of winning.

The Kelly Criterion Strategy is used to balance the equation of risk and reward.

Players who have mastered the math behind the Kelly Criterion can say that the strategy has helped them to determine the optimal size of their bets. The advantages of using the Kelly Criterion are evident over time when players realise that the fraction of won bets equals the probability that any bet will be a win.

The Kelly Criterion maximises your advantage and minimises your risk by taking the available value and the size of your bankroll into account.

Kelly Criterion betting in sports

With all the math involved, you could be wondering how it will apply when betting in the world of sports, where there have never been two exact games. So, how can you use the Kelly Criterion to calculate probabilities in the sports industry?

It is extremely difficult to determine the exact probability that a certain sport- bet will win, especially if you are basing your argument on personal opinions.

How to calculate Kelly Criterion

To calculate Kelly Criterion betting strategy, you have to understand, master and practise the formula, which is:

(bw – l) /b = f

‘b’ is the multiple of your money, which you can win from the bet. With decimal odds, the value of ‘b’ is equal to the odds, minus 1.

For instance, a £10 bet at 5.00 gives a return of £50, including the initial amount. Therefore, the total amount of money won is £40 or a multiple or 4 (based on the principal amount).

‘w’ is the probability of the bet winning, meaning that a bet with a 30% chance of going your way has 0.30 probability of winning.

‘l’ is the probability that your bet will lose.(Using the example above and assuming there are no ties) if you have 30% chances to win, it means that there is a 70% chance of losing. Therefore, the probability of losing is 0.70. You can also determine ‘l’ by subtracting ‘w’ from 1.

‘f’ is the solution that provides you with the fraction of your bankroll that should be used to place your desired bet.

If we use the values from our examples, our equation will look like this:

( (4 x 0.30) – 0.70)/4 = 0.125

Based on this example, you should bet 12.5% of your bankroll on your chosen game.

Positive Expected Value in the Kelly Criterion Strategy

When the probability of a bet winning is more than the implied probability of the odds, we say that there is a Positive expected value. For instance, if the odds are two and the implied probability of you winning is 0.50 or 50% but you still believe that the bet has over 50% chances of winning, it means the bet has a positive expected value.

Rules of using Kelly Criterion

It is important to be keen when using the Kelly Criterion in sports betting. It is advisable to only make bets in games with a positive expected value. Value is not constant in sports, with people differing on views and analysis. However, before placing a bet, you should always ensure that the odds are high enough to make up for the risk of losing.

The Kelly Criterion will help you to balance the odds of winning and the risks of losing as you bet on your favourite games. If there is no positive expected value, your formula will return a negative which means it is not a good bet to make.

The world of gambling has undergone drastic changes in the recent past, thanks to the internet. The fact that people can gamble and play games using the world wide web is a massive development. Even though online gaming might be relatively new, it has experienced significant changes since its inception. Online casino standards were not even close as to what we see today. The games, the casino software, playing styles and overall experience of online gambling have immensely improved especially in the last five years.

One of the notable developments, however, is in the field of sports betting. Online sports betting has grown incredibly popular among gamblers worldwide, and this has seen the introduction of thousands of online betting sites. Due to this immense competition, each and every casino has been trying every tactic possible to get the attention of customers. One of the things that were introduced was Live Betting, also known as in-play betting.

Contrary to the norm, where bettors place their wagers before the games have started, Live Betting enables them to place bets while the game is in session. It not only increases your chances of winning, but it is also incredibly exciting. Sports enthusiasts who value their money, this is the best option to go for. It gives sharp bettors a huge advantage of sportsbooks since it is easier to predict the outcome of a match you are watching than the one that has not yet kicked off. However, before indulging in live betting, let’s take a look at how live betting works and the advantages it offers.

Live Betting Explained

As mentioned above, Live betting involves placing online wagers for sports games that are currently taking place. It functions more or less like traditional sports betting in every other aspect including types of wagers, payment modes and selecting bets based on what you think will happen. However, the odds differ as the game continues. This depends on the time remaining, goals scored, cards given out and any other major event that might affect the outcome of the match. When you place a wager, you will get a fixed odd at that time, and your winnings will be calculated using that odd.

Types of wagers

In-Play betting introduces some new types of betting selections that would not be possible in traditional sports betting. These bets include goal scorers, the next team to score, the time of the next goal, time of next booking among others. These wagers differ from one casino to another, but it is possible to find some that are similar among several casinos.

Odds in In-Play Betting

Bookmakers adjust odds regularly depending on the direction the game is taking. You might find that as a football match starts, the odds were: 1.80: 3.5: 3.90, and this means that the home team is the favourite to win the match. However, if the away team scores first, that means that the home team’s chances of winning the match have reduced, and now the away team is the favourite. In that instant, the odds changes to something like 2.90: 3.5: 2.10. It is therefore very crucial for one to be keen on the events taking place in the match since they dictate the betting odds.

Advantages of Live Betting

Live betting is suited to increase the winning chances of the bettor. It has several advantages over traditional sports betting, and when maximum attention is paid to it, it can prove to be a great value for your money. One of the biggest advantages of in-play betting is the additional types of bets. They not only provide more opportunities to consider but also enhance the betting experience. When a bettor is given a chance to bet on the time of the next goal, for example, it will keep him on the alert and fingers crossed as he waits for that particular minute. You will also find that these bets have a higher odd than usual bets thus you can make more money if you win.

Also, being able to bet as you watch a game increases your chances of making a correct decision. Due to your previous experience, you can be able to predict the outcome of a match when you see the intensity of the match, the formation of the team, or if by any chance a favourite player gets an injury during the game. For example, in football, if a defender is given a red card, you can easily predict that that particular team can rarely win the match.

Another advantage of in-play betting is the constantly changing odds. Live betting odds offer more value as the game proceeds, which give you the advantage of making more money out of your bet. Sports bettors have gained a real edge of bookmakers using this option. Also, as odds changes are dependent on events taking place in the match, you might find that the bookmaker’s predictions are not correct, and if your instincts tell you otherwise and bet on the higher odd, you can make a big profit.

Disadvantages of live betting

No doubt, everything has its good and bad sides. Live betting can prove to be more emotional and a bit hard to control. When you lose your cool, you will find it hard to process decisions intelligently, and this might lead to you losing.

Similarly, live betting needs quick action. Therefore you don’t have time for match analysis.

Another disadvantage is that you have to be watching the game. It is hard to predict an outcome in a live bet if you are not concentrating and watching the game.

In conclusion, Live-Betting demands considerable expertise and fast analysis tactics. You could be significantly disadvantaged if you are a slow bettor or new to the betting scene. Thus, it is recommendable you take time to learn live betting strategies and consider starting out with minimum stakes to avoid high losses. Other than that, ensure that your internet connection is fast and reliable since a delay of few seconds can lead to great inconvenience. Also, choose to bet live games from a reliable and reputable sportsbook and on that offers a variety of wagering options.

It’s fair to say that betting is part of our heritage. Small or large, we’ve all bet on something. Young kids betting their sweets that their best friend can’t jump over a stream without getting their feet wet, old men huddled in the bookies on race day, housewives clutching their lottery tickets. Betting is omnipresent in our lives.

If you’re sports mad, the chances are you’ve bet on your favourite team to win a few times, maybe even won a few quid. And with most sports and betting online being accessible from anywhere, you’ve probably sat in the pub with your mates and placed bets from your mobile. But, would you ever bet against your team? Seriously, if you could win a decent amount of cash by betting they’d lose the final round in a major competition, would you bet against them?

That’s the difference between betting for fun and betting to win. Loyalty stays at the door. For betting veterans, if there’s no value in it, then there’s no point. Simple as that.

Value betting: the odds in your favour

If you really want the odds in your favour, you need to do what the pros do and learn the art of value betting. Like finding a rough diamond, they spot value where others (bookmakers) think there is none. But how do you know there’s value in a bet?

Calculate bet value like the bookies do

Bookies base their calculations of probability based on lots of data like past results, player health, how a team performs away, the weather, and even the crowd’s temperament. Remember, if bookkeepers always offered favourable odds there would be no betting industry. But as the savvy punter knows, bookies can get it wrong. They know this by doing their own calculations and collecting their own data.

We’re all privy to a lot of information these days. In a few clicks or swipes we too can find out past results, if a striker is on form after an injury (and whether his substitute is any good), if the away team’s crowd is geared up for hostility, previous performance, etc. But none of this is useful data if your calculations tell you there’s no value in the bet offered.

Spotting value

Let’s say you’re going to bet on your friend making a jump over a stream without getting his feet wet. You can place a bet with one of two bookies. Bookie 2 doesn’t know much about him, just that he’s average-looking and he’s got a 50/50 record for making the jump. So out of 100% there’s 50% probability either way. By calculating 100/50, the true decimal price is 2.00. Because they need their cut, Bookie 2 offers odds at 1.90.

Bookie 1’s data suggests your friend will probably get his feet wet. But to make the bet look attractive, they price it at 2.10. What Bookie 1 doesn’t know about your friend is that he’s practised hard recently. Out of the hundreds of jumps this past week, he never got his feet wet.

Calculate the value

It sounds obvious, but to calculate bet value you need a percentage over zero. To work it out, multiply probability by the decimal odds, minus 100%.

Bookie 1: 50% x 2.10 minus 100% = 5%

Bookie 2: 50% x 1.90 minus 100% = -5%

With 5% value, the 2.10 odds offered by Bookie 1 means your bet is a sure thing. You’ve spotted true value (in their mistake).

Back to the real world: how do you make money long term through value betting?

The odds mentioned are fictional, but hopefully you get the gist and know how to calculate betting value. Bookmakers have access to lots of information and statistics. Luckily, so have you. There are excellent websites offering prediction services based on data like the bookies use. You can also get tips from various sources like a relative who always seems to win, or use one of many tipster websites dedicated to sports and betting online. Bookie 2’s odds reflect a more accurate picture of the odds you’ll often come across; makes you wonder how you’re supposed to win anything.

Don’t worry, bookmakers know, with the right calculations and data, and a good banking strategy (more about that later), a percentage of punters spot value and win. It wouldn’t be fair game otherwise.

So when you see value in a bet, even against your own team, why not go for it and win either way?